MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, September 11, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, September 11, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Max Scherzer (TOR) — 1.82 HR/9
   99HR Score

   36.1%HR Probability

   +289Best Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Nolan McLean (NYM) — 0.54 HR/9
   95HR Score

   13.8%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
3. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 1.85 HR/9
   95HR Score

   41.9%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Drew Rasmussen (TB) — 1.01 HR/9
   94HR Score

   27.7%HR Probability

   +310Best Odds
5. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Matthew Liberatore (STL) — 1.93 HR/9
   93HR Score

   23.0%HR Probability

   +450Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.