MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, September 12, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, September 12, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Kyle Leahy (STL) — 1.25 HR/9
   99HR Score

   27.9%HR Probability

   +259Model Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Zac Thornton (NYM) — 1.69 HR/9
   98HR Score

   35.0%HR Probability

   +210Best Odds
3. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Tyler Mahle (ATL) — 1.05 HR/9
   98HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
4. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Spencer Miles (TOR) — 0.00 HR/9
   97HR Score

   3.6%HR Probability

   +2656Model Odds
5. Rafael Devers
   SF · LHH · vs Michael King (SD) — 1.03 HR/9
   94HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.