MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, September 13, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, September 13, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Grant Holmes (ATL) — 1.29 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +215Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Dylan Cease (TOR) — 0.41 HR/9
   99HR Score

   16.4%HR Probability

   +511Model Odds
3. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Michael McGreevy (STL) — 1.24 HR/9
   99HR Score

   26.6%HR Probability

   +276Model Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Christian Scott (NYM) — 0.25 HR/9
   98HR Score

   8.6%HR Probability

   +225Best Odds
5. Elly De La Cruz
   CIN · SHH · vs Robert Gasser (MIL) — 1.80 HR/9
   95HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.