MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, September 15, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Foster Griffin (CLE) — 1.40 HR/9
   99HR Score

   20.7%HR Probability

   +383Model Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Michael Wacha (KC) — 0.68 HR/9
   99HR Score

   28.3%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds
3. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Kevin Gausman (CHC) — 0.96 HR/9
   97HR Score

   41.9%HR Probability

   +320Best Odds
4. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Sean Manaea (NYM) — 1.60 HR/9
   96HR Score

   31.2%HR Probability

   +220Model Odds
5. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Bailey Ober (MIN) — 1.10 HR/9
   93HR Score

   17.3%HR Probability

   +480Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.