MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, September 16, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Parker Messick (CLE) — 1.02 HR/9
   99HR Score

   15.7%HR Probability

   +537Model Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Zebby Matthews (MIN) — 1.66 HR/9
   97HR Score

   28.8%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Robert Stock (NYM) — 0.00 HR/9
   95HR Score

   6.2%HR Probability

   +1520Model Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Daniel Lynch IV (KC) — 0.32 HR/9
   94HR Score

   10.3%HR Probability

   +871Model Odds
5. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Zack Wheeler (PHI) — 1.49 HR/9
   94HR Score

   32.0%HR Probability

   +213Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.