MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, September 17, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, September 17, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Seth Lugo (KC) — 0.99 HR/9
   99HR Score

   39.1%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Framber Valdez (DET) — 0.70 HR/9
   99HR Score

   10.1%HR Probability

   +450Best Odds
3. Juan Soto
   NYM · LHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 1.88 HR/9
   91HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +290Best Odds
4. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Nolan McLean (NYM) — 1.21 HR/9
   89HR Score

   32.6%HR Probability

   +285Best Odds
5. Nelson Velázquez
   HOU · RHH · vs Seth Lugo (KC) — 1.17 HR/9
   87HR Score

   19.1%HR Probability

   +424Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.