MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, September 18, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, September 18, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Andrew Sears (DET) — 1.05 HR/9
   99HR Score

   13.7%HR Probability

   +629Model Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) — 0.78 HR/9
   95HR Score

   24.2%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Tyler Mahle (ATL) — 1.08 HR/9
   95HR Score

   29.2%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
4. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Dustin May (MIL) — 0.63 HR/9
   94HR Score

   23.3%HR Probability

   +329Model Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Zac Thornton (NYM) — 1.48 HR/9
   89HR Score

   32.8%HR Probability

   +205Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.