MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, September 19, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, September 19, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Jackson Jobe (DET) — 1.71 HR/9
   99HR Score

   37.7%HR Probability

   +420Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Grant Holmes (ATL) — 1.24 HR/9
   95HR Score

   38.1%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Robert Gasser (MIL) — 1.68 HR/9
   95HR Score

   35.3%HR Probability

   +330Best Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) — 0.32 HR/9
   94HR Score

   8.0%HR Probability

   +1155Model Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Christian Scott (NYM) — 1.49 HR/9
   87HR Score

   35.7%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.