MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, September 20, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, September 20, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Martín Pérez (ATL) — 1.35 HR/9
   99HR Score

   43.5%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Troy Melton (DET) — 1.58 HR/9
   99HR Score

   35.5%HR Probability

   +182Model Odds
3. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Hunter Brown (HOU) — 1.11 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +430Best Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Corbin Burnes (AZ) — 2.35 HR/9
   97HR Score

   37.6%HR Probability

   +166Model Odds
5. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — 1.00 HR/9
   96HR Score

   35.9%HR Probability

   +370Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.