MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, September 21, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, September 21, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Trey Yesavage (TOR) — 1.08 HR/9
   99HR Score

   32.4%HR Probability

   +370Best Odds
2. Coby Mayo
   BAL · RHH · vs Trey Yesavage (TOR) — 1.08 HR/9
   96HR Score

   23.0%HR Probability

   +420Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs River Ryan (DET)
   90HR Score

   13.5%HR Probability

   +430Best Odds
4. Kazuma Okamoto
   TOR · RHH · vs Shane Baz (BAL) — 0.50 HR/9
   88HR Score

   12.6%HR Probability

   +525Best Odds
5. Andrés Chaparro
   WSH · RHH · vs River Ryan (DET)
   84HR Score

   22.7%HR Probability

   +341Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.