MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, September 22, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Logan Gilbert (SEA) — 1.28 HR/9
   99HR Score

   29.4%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Max Scherzer (TOR) — 1.52 HR/9
   98HR Score

   39.4%HR Probability

   +154Model Odds
3. Nelson Velázquez
   HOU · RHH · vs Logan Gilbert (SEA) — 1.61 HR/9
   97HR Score

   23.2%HR Probability

   +331Model Odds
4. Kazuma Okamoto
   TOR · RHH · vs Chris Bassitt (BAL) — 0.45 HR/9
   96HR Score

   18.1%HR Probability

   +453Model Odds
5. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Daniel Lynch IV (KC) — 0.30 HR/9
   92HR Score

   6.7%HR Probability

   +1403Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.