MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, September 23, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, September 23, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs George Kirby (SEA) — 1.32 HR/9
   99HR Score

   36.9%HR Probability

   +350Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Max Scherzer (TOR) — 1.52 HR/9
   98HR Score

   42.3%HR Probability

   +370Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs TBD (TOR)
   98HR Score

   31.5%HR Probability

   +370Best Odds
4. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Seth Lugo (KC) — 1.24 HR/9
   94HR Score

   28.2%HR Probability

   +525Best Odds
5. Kazuma Okamoto
   TOR · RHH · vs Chris Bassitt (BAL) — 0.45 HR/9
   94HR Score

   14.4%HR Probability

   +600Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.