MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, September 24, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, September 24, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Bryse Wilson (MIL) — 0.57 HR/9
   99HR Score

   27.4%HR Probability

   +265Model Odds
2. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Brady Singer (CIN) — 2.16 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Mason Barnett (ATH) — 1.88 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
4. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Randy Dobnak (KC) — 1.18 HR/9
   95HR Score

   28.4%HR Probability

   +252Model Odds
5. Ben Rice
   NYY · LHH · vs Ian Seymour (TB) — 2.34 HR/9
   94HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +550Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.