MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, September 25, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, September 25, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) — 2.30 HR/9
   99HR Score

   42.3%HR Probability

   +420Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Jacob Lopez (ATH) — 0.82 HR/9
   99HR Score

   37.0%HR Probability

   +171Model Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Brendan Beck (NYY) — 4.70 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
4. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs TBD (NYY)
   97HR Score

   40.5%HR Probability

   +147Model Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Freddy Peralta (TB) — 1.46 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +280Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.