MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, September 26, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, September 26, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Jose Quintana (COL) — 2.70 HR/9
   99HR Score

   34.7%HR Probability

   +188Model Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Jack Perkins (ATH) — 1.55 HR/9
   97HR Score

   36.7%HR Probability

   +173Model Odds
3. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Griffin Jax (TB) — 1.38 HR/9
   89HR Score

   30.6%HR Probability

   +226Model Odds
4. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Jonah Tong (NYM) — 0.59 HR/9
   86HR Score

   11.8%HR Probability

   +420Best Odds
5. Elly De La Cruz
   CIN · SHH · vs Trey Yesavage (TOR) — 0.85 HR/9
   84HR Score

   21.4%HR Probability

   +650Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.