MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, September 27, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, September 27, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Kyle Freeland (COL) — 0.73 HR/9
   99HR Score

   18.3%HR Probability

   +446Model Odds
2. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.13 HR/9
   96HR Score

   43.8%HR Probability

   +190Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) — 0.55 HR/9
   96HR Score

   32.1%HR Probability

   +211Model Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Seth Johnson (ATH) — 1.23 HR/9
   91HR Score

   31.2%HR Probability

   +221Model Odds
5. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Janson Junk (MIA) — 0.77 HR/9
   86HR Score

   18.3%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.