MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, September 30, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Hunter Brown (HOU) — 1.03 HR/9
   99HR Score

   41.0%HR Probability

   +470Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Sean Burke (CWS) — 1.15 HR/9
   96HR Score

   36.3%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
3. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Tyler Mahle (ATL) — 1.23 HR/9
   93HR Score

   33.3%HR Probability

   +263Best Odds
4. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — 0.17 HR/9
   92HR Score

   9.9%HR Probability

   +500Best Odds
5. Spencer Jones
   NYY · LHH · vs Sonny Gray (BOS) — 0.82 HR/9
   84HR Score

   11.7%HR Probability

   +758Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.