MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, October 4, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, October 4, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Blake Snell (LAD) — 0.00 HR/9
   99HR Score

   3.3%HR Probability

   +490Best Odds
2. Max Muncy
   LAD · LHH · vs TBD (ATL)
   95HR Score

   20.0%HR Probability

   +520Best Odds
3. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs TBD (ATL)
   93HR Score

   17.5%HR Probability

   +316Best Odds
4. Ronald Acuña Jr.
   ATL · RHH · vs Blake Snell (LAD) — 0.00 HR/9
   91HR Score

   3.6%HR Probability

   +525Best Odds
5. Will Smith
   LAD · RHH · vs TBD (ATL)
   87HR Score

   19.2%HR Probability

   +443Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.