MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, October 5, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, October 5, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Gavin Williams (CLE) — 1.15 HR/9
   99HR Score

   28.3%HR Probability

   +450Best Odds
2. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Cam Schlittler (NYY) — 0.81 HR/9
   81HR Score

   23.1%HR Probability

   +350Best Odds
3. Ben Rice
   NYY · LHH · vs Freddy Peralta (TB) — 1.43 HR/9
   80HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +375Best Odds
4. Colson Montgomery
   CWS · LHH · vs Gavin Williams (CLE) — 1.15 HR/9
   79HR Score

   18.2%HR Probability

   +650Best Odds
5. Spencer Jones
   NYY · LHH · vs Freddy Peralta (TB) — 1.43 HR/9
   77HR Score

   13.8%HR Probability

   +550Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.