MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, October 8, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, October 8, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Parker Messick (CLE) — 0.91 HR/9
   99HR Score

   15.7%HR Probability

   +400Best Odds
2. Colson Montgomery
   CWS · LHH · vs Parker Messick (CLE) — 0.91 HR/9
   76HR Score

   13.3%HR Probability

   +525Best Odds
3. Miguel Vargas
   CWS · RHH · vs Parker Messick (CLE) — 0.79 HR/9
   75HR Score

   14.5%HR Probability

   +440Best Odds
4. Randal Grichuk
   CWS · RHH · vs Parker Messick (CLE) — 0.79 HR/9
   66HR Score

   14.7%HR Probability

   +640Best Odds
5. Andrew Benintendi
   CWS · LHH · vs Parker Messick (CLE) — 0.91 HR/9
   64HR Score

   1.0%HR Probability

   +9900Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.