MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, October 11, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, October 11, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Max Muncy
   LAD · LHH · vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — 0.55 HR/9
   99HR Score

   17.3%HR Probability

   +590Best Odds
2. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — 0.55 HR/9
   99HR Score

   11.7%HR Probability

   +520Best Odds
3. Will Smith
   LAD · RHH · vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — 0.95 HR/9
   90HR Score

   11.6%HR Probability

   +710Best Odds
4. Jake Bauers
   MIL · LHH · vs Tarik Skubal (LAD) — 1.02 HR/9
   89HR Score

   12.9%HR Probability

   +680Best Odds
5. Jackson Chourio
   MIL · RHH · vs Tarik Skubal (LAD) — 0.73 HR/9
   88HR Score

   16.7%HR Probability

   +590Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.