MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, October 12, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, October 12, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Max Muncy
   LAD · LHH · vs Logan Henderson (MIL) — 1.41 HR/9
   99HR Score

   30.4%HR Probability

   +229Model Odds
2. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Foster Griffin (CLE) — 1.16 HR/9
   97HR Score

   16.6%HR Probability

   +525Best Odds
3. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Logan Henderson (MIL) — 1.41 HR/9
   93HR Score

   15.4%HR Probability

   +549Model Odds
4. Will Smith
   LAD · RHH · vs Logan Henderson (MIL) — 1.06 HR/9
   91HR Score

   12.6%HR Probability

   +691Model Odds
5. Jake Bauers
   MIL · LHH · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) — 0.90 HR/9
   89HR Score

   10.4%HR Probability

   +860Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.