MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, October 16, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, October 16, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 1.17 HR/9
   99HR Score

   15.5%HR Probability

   +540Best Odds
2. Victor Mesa Jr.
   TB · LHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 0.90 HR/9
   95HR Score

   14.4%HR Probability

   +542Best Odds
3. Cedric Mullins
   TB · LHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 0.90 HR/9
   83HR Score

   12.8%HR Probability

   +681Model Odds
4. Jonathan Aranda
   TB · LHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 0.90 HR/9
   83HR Score

   9.6%HR Probability

   +790Best Odds
5. Nathaniel Lowe
   CLE · LHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.11 HR/9
   81HR Score

   10.7%HR Probability

   +830Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.