MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, October 17, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, October 17, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Victor Mesa Jr.
   TB · LHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 0.90 HR/9
   99HR Score

   14.0%HR Probability

   +770Best Odds
2. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 1.17 HR/9
   99HR Score

   15.0%HR Probability

   +630Best Odds
3. Cedric Mullins
   TB · LHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 0.90 HR/9
   88HR Score

   12.3%HR Probability

   +713Model Odds
4. Jonathan Aranda
   TB · LHH · vs Shawn Armstrong (CLE) — 0.90 HR/9
   87HR Score

   9.3%HR Probability

   +720Best Odds
5. Nathaniel Lowe
   CLE · LHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.11 HR/9
   81HR Score

   10.4%HR Probability

   +970Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.