MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, October 23, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, October 23, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — 0.95 HR/9
   99HR Score

   22.9%HR Probability

   +575Best Odds
2. Jake Bauers
   MIL · LHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.11 HR/9
   90HR Score

   14.2%HR Probability

   +575Best Odds
3. Jackson Chourio
   MIL · RHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.10 HR/9
   89HR Score

   14.6%HR Probability

   +650Best Odds
4. Victor Mesa Jr.
   TB · LHH · vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — 0.55 HR/9
   85HR Score

   9.2%HR Probability

   +820Best Odds
5. William Contreras
   MIL · RHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.10 HR/9
   79HR Score

   14.4%HR Probability

   +700Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.